Both Rishi Sunak and Mark Drakeford's popularity in Wales have fallen further, new polling shows. And Vaughan Gething has a clear lead over his fellow Welsh Labour leadership hopeful Jeremy Miles as the two aim to become the next First Minister.

Pollsters Redfield and Wilton polled 1,100 people in Wales between January 24 and 26 asking who they would vote for in future elections, their feelings about political leaders, and the issues affeccting their choices.

It shows Mr Drakeford's support is falling while Mr Sunak's remains stubbornly low. Meanwhile Mr Gething is by far the favourite to take Wales' top job among those who were asked opposed to Neath MS Mr Miles.

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Labour support up in Wales

The latest Welsh Westminster voting intention poll continues to show Labour leading the Conservatives in Wales by 28%, which is three points up from the difference seen in the previous poll a month ago.

It shows support of:

Labour 48% (+1)

Conservatives 20% (-2)

Reform UK 12% (+2)

Plaid Cymru 11% (–)

Liberal Democrat 4% (-2)

Green 4% (+1)

Other 1% (+1)

The NHS is the most important topic

When asked the most important topic in determining how they would vote in a general election 65% of Welsh voters rank the NHS as among the three top issues. The economy was second at 64%. Immigration (35%), housing (19%), education (16%), and the environment (16%) all featured too.

More think UK Government is 'incompetent'

Asked their view on the UK Government a majority of Welsh voters (64%, which is up two on the previous poll) say the current UK Government is incompetent. Only 12% view the UK Government as competent.

More want Keir Starmer as Prime Minister than Rishi Sunak

When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer 47% of Welsh voters say Keir Starmer against 24% who say Rishi Sunak. Those who answered "don’t know" totalled 28%..

Prime Minister Mr Sunak has a net approval rating of -38%, four points down from his previous rating in Wales last month. A rising number of Welsh voters disapprove of his overall job performance (58%, up two) against only 20% who approve.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s net approval rating in Wales stands at +1%, down six points from last month. Overall 34% (down two) of Welsh voters approve of Starmer’s job performance, against 33% (up four) who disapprove.

Mark Drakeford's popularity falls further

The outgoing First Minister of Wales Mark Drakeford receives a net approval rating of -18% which is down one point from last month. The poll finds 28% of voters approve of his overall job performance as First Minister against 46% (up one) who disapprove.

The Conservatives Senedd group leader Andrew RT Davies holds a net approval rating of -15% and Rhun ap Iorwerth, the leader of Plaid Cymru, has a net approval rating of -13% (down 11).

Labour's Senedd support down slightly

The Labour party leads by wide margins in both the constituency and regional list voting intention polls although support is down for Labour by two. It is up for Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.

The constituency results show:

  • Labour 39% (-2)
  • Conservative 25% (+3)
  • Plaid Cymru 18% (+1)
  • Reform UK 9% (+2)
  • Green 4% (+1)
  • Abolish the Welsh Assembly 3% (–)
  • Liberal Democrat 3% (-4)
  • Other 0% (–)

In terms of the regional list Labour is on 34% (+6) with Plaid Cymru (21%, down three) in second ahead of the Conservatives (19%, down one) in third. For the latest politics news in Wales sign up to our newsletter here.

Support for devolution is up

When asked how they would vote in a referendum with the question ‘Should there be a Welsh Parliament?’ 59% (down one) of Welsh voters answer yes while 32% (up two) said no and a further 9% (down one) don’t know.

Vaughan Gething more popular than Jeremy Miles

The current economy minister, Vaughan Gething, and education minister, Jeremy Miles, are battling to replace Mark Drakeford. This poll found 27% of Welsh voters would most like to see Mr Gething replace Mr Drakeford. That's compared to 10% who would prefer to see Jeremy Miles replace Mr Drakeford. A further 24% of Welsh voters would prefer to see someone else replace Mr Drakeford while 40% say they don’t know. Among those who voted for Labour in their constituency ballot in the 2021 Senedd Election 39% would prefer Mr Gething to become Labour leader.

'Yes' to independence support falls

Finally, in a hypothetical referendum on Welsh independence, the poll finds ‘no’ leading by 59% and yes with 30%, down four. More people answered "don't know" this month than the previous month.